First thoughts: Inauguration Day

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** Inauguration Day: Exactly one year ago, Obama had lost his second-consecutive Democratic contest to Hillary Clinton just the day before (the Nevada caucuses); he was campaigning in South Carolina, which had become a make-or-break primary for him; and he was preparing for an MLK Day debate in the Palmetto State, which would turn into the most contentious debate of the primary season. ("I was fighting against those ideas when you were practicing law and representing your contributor, Rezko, in his slum landlord business in inner-city Chicago,” Clinton told Obama.) In short, Obama’s prospects for winning the Democratic nomination -- and the presidency -- looked dimmer then than at any point after winning the Iowa caucuses earlier that month. Now, on this 20th day of January, Obama will be sworn in as the nation’s 44th president, becoming the first African American to hold the office. He enters his presidency with higher hopes and higher poll numbers than any president at any time in this country's history. It's incredible political capital. In recent times, only Bush 41 and Bush 43 had higher approval ratings, and those bumps were due to war.

Video: Americans look ahead to Obama's historic inaugural address. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.

*** Another big speech: The inaugural address that Obama will deliver today will be just the latest in a long line of big speeches he’s made. The first, of course, was at the 2004 Democratic convention (“There is not a liberal America and a conservative America; there is the United States of America”). Then came his presidential announcement in Springfield, IL (“I know I haven't spent a lot of time learning the ways of Washington, but I've been there long enough to know that the ways of Washington must change”). There was his speech on race in Philadelphia ("I will never forget that in no other country on Earth is my story even possible"). There was his speech at the Democratic convention (“I stand before you tonight because all across America something is stirring. What the nay-sayers don’t understand is that this election has never been about me; it’s been about you”). And there was his victory speech in Chicago’s Grant Park ("If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible…”). As we’ve said before, Obama will likely use speeches to help him govern more than any other modern American president. And speeches will likely create many of the defining moments of his presidency.

*** Today’s tick-tock: The Obamas and Bidens have already attended a prayer service at 8:40 am ET; the Obamas and Bushes (as well as the Bidens and Cheneys) have coffee together at the White House at 10:10 am; Biden gets sworn in by Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens; Obama (with his Lincoln bible) gets sworn in by Chief Justice John Roberts at 11:30 am; Obama delivers his inaugural address around noon; the new president heads to the Capitol to sign his cabinet secretary nomination certificates; Obama then participates in a departure ceremony for Bush, and Bush makes remarks at 1:25 pm; Obama begins his inaugural parade at 2:30 pm; and he attends all 10 official inaugural balls later in the evening.

Video: TODAY's Meredith Vieira reports on what to expect at the 56th inauguration.

*** The State of The Union: Here is a statistical look at the nation’s challenges Obama inherits today. Just 26% are satisfied with the nation’s direction, according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll; about 172,000 U.S. troops are currently deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan, per NBC’s Courtney Kube; the unemployment rate is at 7.2%; the Dow is at 8,281; 45.7 million Americans don’t have health insurance; 7.6 million families live in poverty; and the budget deficit is projected to be $1.2 trillion in 2009.

Video: NBC's Andrea Mitchell looks ahead at the challenges that will face Obama.

*** Charm school: One of Obama's secret weapons -- or maybe not-so secret weapons -- has been his personal charm. Already, we've seen plenty of smitten former opponents, from GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell to conservative-thought leaders like Charles Krauthammer. Obama actually follows in a long line of presidents who have won, thanks in part for being the more likeable of the two candidates. Bush 43, Clinton, and Reagan all got two terms due in large part to their charm. Another thing to remember: Obama enters his presidency with less to prove, oddly enough, than some recent occupants. In fact, not since Reagan in 1980 has a new president come in with such a small, well, chip on his shoulder. What do we mean? Bush 43 had to prove to many he won fair and square; Bill Clinton was trying to prove his 43% was worthy of a mandate; and Bush 41 had Reagan’s shadow looming over him. Reagan replacing Carter, and now Obama replacing Bush 43, may be the biggest positive-negative contrast between presidents in the modern era.

*** Cornyn vs. Clinton: On the first day of his presidency, however, it looks Obama is going to have to deal with a minor fight over Hillary Clinton’s nomination as Secretary of State. GOP Sen. John Cornyn, the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, appears poised to slow down Clinton’s nomination because he wants increased disclosure of foreign donors to the Clinton Foundation. In fact, First Read has learned that Clinton’s nomination will likely require a vote -- unlike some of Obama’s other nominees, who will pass via unanimous consent. And this might delay Clinton's confirmation a day or two, as well as delay Obama appointing George Mitchell as a Mideast envoy (see below for more on that). Of course, you might ask where this objection to Clinton was when her nomination sailed through the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 16-1, or when Obama and Clinton hatched their original agreement over the Clinton Foundation. Obama and Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell will have a lot of face time today. Think they'll talk about this?

*** Give the man his BlackBerry! By the way, John Podesta, the co-chair of Obama's transition, has an op-ed in the Los Angeles Times arguing that Obama should be able to use his BlackBerry as president. "An off-line Obama isn't just bad for Barack. It's bad for all of us. The president's ability to reach outside his inner circle gives him access to fresh ideas and constructive critics; it underscores the difference between political 'victories' and actual solutions; and it brings the American people into a battle we can only win by working together."

Video: The Bushes are shipping out and the Obama's are moving in. NBC's John Yang reports.

*** Cue Alanis Morissette: And just askin’, but isn’t it a bit ironic that George W. Bush -- who pressed for comprehensive immigration reform and has warned his party to do a better job of reaching out to Latinos -- granted clemency yesterday to ex-Border Patrol agents, Jose Compean and Ignacio Ramos, who became cause celebres to anti-immigrant conservatives?

Countdown to RNC winter meeting: 8 days
Countdown to VA Dem primary: 140 days
Countdown to NJ GOP primary: 133 days
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 287 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 651 days

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Source: firstread.msnbc.msn.com