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2:22 AM
Scale, planning suggest a well-organized terror group is responsible for mayhem in India
The Mumbai attacks have become "India's 9/11." Just as Islamabad's Marriott hotel was dubbed "Pakistan's Twin Towers" after the September assault or London's July 7, 2005, bombings of the subway system were given their own day of infamy as 7/7.
But how do the brazen attacks in Mumbai this week fit into the global picture of terrorism that has developed since 2001? And where does that leave India?
While it's still too early to definitively assess blame for the assaults, there are some strong clues.
The scale, planning and success of the attack suggest a well-organized group, while the targeting of British, American and Israeli nationals indicate Al Qaeda-inspired ideology, if not direct involvement by Al Qaeda's elusive leaders themselves.
India quickly pointed the finger at foreigners, especially long-time rival Pakistan and the Lashkar-e-Taiba, a radical Muslim group that seeks an independent Kashmir. Reports yesterday also indicated that some of the gunmen spoke with British accents, raising the spectre of a tie to the United Kingdom.
But there are also indications that the group may in fact be domestic, or at the very least, have a strong Indian element.
The Indian Mujahideen has been held responsible for a series of deadly attacks in the past few months and had specifically warned of "deadly attacks" in Mumbai.
The Indian government has claimed they have dismantled the group but there was always doubt that the threat had been minimized.
"Any attacks like this you will pick up local people on the ground and you have a mastermind or from outside who basically run the operation," said Peter Bergen, a senior fellow at Washington think-tank The New America Foundation, who has written extensively on Al Qaeda. "It wouldn't be surprising if it's the Indian Mujahideen providing the foot soldiers and a larger terrorist group, a Pakistani militant group, providing the training, financing and organization."
The link to Pakistan will be critical.
The two nuclear-armed nations came close to war following the December 2001 attacks on the Indian parliament by Lashkar-e-Taiba, and another group fighting for Kashmir, the Jaish-e-Muhammad.
Both groups have ties to Pakistan's powerful intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, and the Pakistani government did little to reel them in following the storming of India's parliament.
More recently, the July bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul by pro-Taliban insurgents was widely believed to have had the blessing of the ISI.
India's involvement in Afghanistan and alliance with Afghan President Hamid Karzai has been regarded warily by Pakistan.
But the announcement yesterday that ISI's director general will make an unprecedented visit to Mumbai, marking the first time an ISI chief will travel to India, seems to indicate that Pakistan will work hard this time to allay fears of any involvement.
"The need for Pakistan to show absolute transparency that the state or state organizations have nothing to do with this attack, that any help the Indians need at identifying who these people are ... can only be given in face-to-face meetings between the two heads of the intelligence agencies," said Pakistani journalist and author Ahmed Rashid.
Rashid believes the attack was a strategic decision directed by Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the hopes of drawing Pakistan's focus away from Afghanistan.
"They are facing relentless attacks by American missiles and from Pakistan forces in the tribal areas. They want to relieve the pressure," Rashid said.
"The one way to do that is to revive India-Pakistan tension."
Pakistan's rivalry with India following the 2001 Indian parliament assault was partly to blame for Al Qaeda's resurgence in Afghanistan and the border region.
Al Qaeda had largely been defeated following the post-9/11 U.S. and coalition attacks.
"Al Qaeda's own internal memoranda documented the fact 80 per cent of their members were captured or killed and the leaders got away but they were scattered, destitute, unable to communicate with each other and repudiated all over the world," notes Pulitzer Prize-winning author and Al Qaeda expert Lawrence Wright.
But with Pakistan distracted and then focus shifting to Iraq, which also became a breeding ground for a new generation of jihadi recruits, Al Qaeda gained strength.
With attention focused again on Afghanistan and further pledges to target Al Qaeda by U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, Rashid has no doubt that this was a politically savvy Al Qaeda plan.
"If both countries get into another round of escalatory tensions it will be playing into the hands of Al Qaeda and that's what both countries have to avoid," Rashid said.
"There's no doubt that maybe Pakistani groups are involved, but Pakistani groups have been involved in almost every terrorist attack around the world for the last four years.
"The Indians have to accept that that does not mean the state is involved."
Source: thestar.com
The Mumbai attacks have become "India's 9/11." Just as Islamabad's Marriott hotel was dubbed "Pakistan's Twin Towers" after the September assault or London's July 7, 2005, bombings of the subway system were given their own day of infamy as 7/7.
But how do the brazen attacks in Mumbai this week fit into the global picture of terrorism that has developed since 2001? And where does that leave India?
While it's still too early to definitively assess blame for the assaults, there are some strong clues.
The scale, planning and success of the attack suggest a well-organized group, while the targeting of British, American and Israeli nationals indicate Al Qaeda-inspired ideology, if not direct involvement by Al Qaeda's elusive leaders themselves.
India quickly pointed the finger at foreigners, especially long-time rival Pakistan and the Lashkar-e-Taiba, a radical Muslim group that seeks an independent Kashmir. Reports yesterday also indicated that some of the gunmen spoke with British accents, raising the spectre of a tie to the United Kingdom.
But there are also indications that the group may in fact be domestic, or at the very least, have a strong Indian element.
The Indian Mujahideen has been held responsible for a series of deadly attacks in the past few months and had specifically warned of "deadly attacks" in Mumbai.
The Indian government has claimed they have dismantled the group but there was always doubt that the threat had been minimized.
"Any attacks like this you will pick up local people on the ground and you have a mastermind or from outside who basically run the operation," said Peter Bergen, a senior fellow at Washington think-tank The New America Foundation, who has written extensively on Al Qaeda. "It wouldn't be surprising if it's the Indian Mujahideen providing the foot soldiers and a larger terrorist group, a Pakistani militant group, providing the training, financing and organization."
The link to Pakistan will be critical.
The two nuclear-armed nations came close to war following the December 2001 attacks on the Indian parliament by Lashkar-e-Taiba, and another group fighting for Kashmir, the Jaish-e-Muhammad.
Both groups have ties to Pakistan's powerful intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, and the Pakistani government did little to reel them in following the storming of India's parliament.
More recently, the July bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul by pro-Taliban insurgents was widely believed to have had the blessing of the ISI.
India's involvement in Afghanistan and alliance with Afghan President Hamid Karzai has been regarded warily by Pakistan.
But the announcement yesterday that ISI's director general will make an unprecedented visit to Mumbai, marking the first time an ISI chief will travel to India, seems to indicate that Pakistan will work hard this time to allay fears of any involvement.
"The need for Pakistan to show absolute transparency that the state or state organizations have nothing to do with this attack, that any help the Indians need at identifying who these people are ... can only be given in face-to-face meetings between the two heads of the intelligence agencies," said Pakistani journalist and author Ahmed Rashid.
Rashid believes the attack was a strategic decision directed by Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the hopes of drawing Pakistan's focus away from Afghanistan.
"They are facing relentless attacks by American missiles and from Pakistan forces in the tribal areas. They want to relieve the pressure," Rashid said.
"The one way to do that is to revive India-Pakistan tension."
Pakistan's rivalry with India following the 2001 Indian parliament assault was partly to blame for Al Qaeda's resurgence in Afghanistan and the border region.
Al Qaeda had largely been defeated following the post-9/11 U.S. and coalition attacks.
"Al Qaeda's own internal memoranda documented the fact 80 per cent of their members were captured or killed and the leaders got away but they were scattered, destitute, unable to communicate with each other and repudiated all over the world," notes Pulitzer Prize-winning author and Al Qaeda expert Lawrence Wright.
But with Pakistan distracted and then focus shifting to Iraq, which also became a breeding ground for a new generation of jihadi recruits, Al Qaeda gained strength.
With attention focused again on Afghanistan and further pledges to target Al Qaeda by U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, Rashid has no doubt that this was a politically savvy Al Qaeda plan.
"If both countries get into another round of escalatory tensions it will be playing into the hands of Al Qaeda and that's what both countries have to avoid," Rashid said.
"There's no doubt that maybe Pakistani groups are involved, but Pakistani groups have been involved in almost every terrorist attack around the world for the last four years.
"The Indians have to accept that that does not mean the state is involved."
Source: thestar.com
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